In China, President Bush focused more on freedom and human rights than on trade and exchange rate issues. Does the Chinese government feels off the hook concerning a revaluation of the Renminbi?
Some commentators have been frustrated because the U.S. foreign policy towards China seems to be not focused and stable enough – they would have liked to see continued exchange rate related statements instead of general comments about (religious) freedom, which might rather please the religious right in the U.S. before Thanks Giving. But behind the scenes, the pressure towards a revaluation continues. From a U.S. perspective, it was important to show that its policy has not been narrowed down to forex issues, but that trade liberalization, market liberalization in general, and the WTO Doha round in particular remain to be top notch issues. In Asia, the broader approach is welcome because China needs to work on all these issues in parallel.
Is another revaluation of the Renminbi now less likely to emerge anytime soon?
China has to expand the trading bands towards other currencies than the Dollar soon. Since monetary policy in China is now much more expansionary than last summer, and since China's trade surplus is about to triple this year, there seems to be a good chance that the Chinese government might throw in another revaluation to the Dollar early next year.